Global Macro Weekly

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Each week: what the major central banks decided, how jobs and inflation data came in vs. expectations, and how FX and asset prices moved in response — all tied together in one analytical read.

Global Macro Weekly08/06/2026, 08:06:42

The Jobs Shock: Week of June 2–6, 2026

May payrolls came in at 172,000 — more than double consensus — triggering Wall Street's worst day of the year, a 15-month high in the 2-year Treasury yield, and USD/JPY back above 160. With EZ CPI at 3.2% and BOJ Governor Ueda signaling a 'good chance' of a June hike, the coming week's ECB decision (June 11), US CPI (June 11), and BOJ MPM (June 15) will determine whether the synchronized global tightening cycle is truly restarting.

Global Macro Weekly01/06/2026, 08:05:01

A Ceasefire Dividend and a Data Reality Check: Week of May 26–30, 2026

Iran ceasefire signals pushed oil from $112 to $92 and Treasury yields lower for four straight sessions — but PCE hit a three-year high at 3.8%, GDP was revised down to 1.6%, the RBNZ held by a casting vote with explicit hike guidance, and the SARB became the first major EM bank to hike since the war began. The week closes with a packed June calendar led by the US May jobs report on June 6 and the ECB's June 11 decision.

Global Macro Weekly25/05/2026, 08:06:00

PCE and the Warsh Test: Week of May 26–30, 2026

FOMC minutes confirmed a hawkish shift, Governor Waller removed his easing bias in Frankfurt, and April PCE arrives Thursday as Warsh's first major inflation test. ECB at 86% probability of a June hike, BoJ near 80%; the RBA pauses after a jobs miss. Brent eases toward $99 on Iran deal optimism as markets brace for a data-heavy, holiday-shortened week.

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